The US intelligence report warns of fears of a possible war in South Asia, saying that Pakistan and India could be embroiled in a protracted war that neither side wants.
The review is included in the US Government’s National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends Report, released every four years, in Washington.
According to Dawn, the report, released Wednesday, April 7, focuses on both the near and distant future, and helps policymakers make predictions about the world’s potential powers over the next five to 20 years.
The report warns that “India and Pakistan could be embroiled in a large-scale war that neither side wants, especially in the wake of a terrorist attack that the Indian government considers important.”
The report added that due to the ability of some militant groups to carry out attacks, New Delhi’s commitment to retaliate against such attacks against Islamabad and Pakistan’s commitment to self-defense would be maintained over the next five years. Can or may increase further.
The report added that “miscalculations by both governments could lead to a breakdown in the conflict, which has been limited to a level that each side believes it will be able to deal with.”
The report warns Washington-based policymakers that “a full-scale war could cause damage that will have economic and political implications for years to come.”
The report points out that US policy in Afghanistan and its impact on neighboring countries are at the forefront of key uncertainties in South Asia.
The report said that next year’s US action in Afghanistan would have significant consequences for the entire region, especially Pakistan and India.
The report added that it was “a fact” that if a security vacuum was created in Afghanistan, it could result can turn to a civil war between the Taliban and its Afghan opponents, regional terrorist networks, or criminal elements abroad in the region.
The report predicts that this will further escalate political tensions and conflicts in the western part of Pakistan. That will reinforce the long-standing Cold War decisions in Islamabad and New Delhi and further fuel hostility between the two countries.
The document said the sudden withdrawal of the United States from the region may increase fears that the United States will lose interest in South Asia.
US intelligence estimates that India and China could also move into a conflict that no government wants, “especially if troops are increasingly challenging each other in a dispute on a key part of the disputed border”.