A dangerous feature of the coronavirus is that it infects people in such a way that they are unaware of the disease, and in the meantime, they transmit it to other people. Medical scientists are constantly working to determine how many such cases there may be in the population.
The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 60 percent of new cases are from people with no symptoms. A new study suggests that the number of cases without symptoms may be higher than expected.
A model was developed for research at the University of Chicago in the United States based on antibody tests conducted in New York from March to April 2020. The results of this model indicate that only 13 to 18 percent of Covid-19 cases have symptoms and the rest are asymptomatic.
It is very difficult to identify patients without symptoms because most people do not even realize the disease without which they should go to the doctor or get tested. The model developed in this study has the potential to differentiate between symptomatic and non-symptomatic cases. The study also included asymptomatic patients whose symptoms were so severe that they did not feel the need for medical attention.
Scientists have made a general estimate that the reproductive value of the coronavirus is between 2 and 3, meaning that a sick person can infect 2 or 3 people in the future. However, if the model developed in this new study is correct, the coronavirus could spread from one person to another more easily than scientists expect.
Researchers say, one possible scenario is that asymptomatic cases spread the virus as much as symptomatic cases, which can have a reproductive value of 3 to 4. Another acceptable hypothesis is that patients with symptoms are more likely to spread the virus and may have a value of 4 to 8.
They said our model supports both scenarios, In our model, however, it has been discovered that undiagnosed cases lead to at least 50% of new cases. They also said We cannot underestimate the risk of spreading the virus from asymptomatic patients, especially as new and more contagious strains are spreading.
The researchers stressed that in the current situation, it is even more important than ever to identify as many asymptomatic cases in order to slow down the spread of the virus.
They also mentioned that all measures should be taken in this regard such as wearing a face mask, social distance, etc. Researchers also say that when making a policy against Covid-19, you need to consider patients without symptoms. You cannot be limited to patients with symptoms.